Moderna (MRNA) Stock Concentration Calculator

Calculator · free · no signup · MRNA

Quantify Moderna concentration risk. Drawdown impact at 30 / 50 / 70%, with the tax-aware trade-off between selling down and hedging.

Beta · invite-only · AlphaLatitude Inc. · Free Tools

Your inputs

Adjust — results update instantly.

Position & portfolio

Default. Adjust to test.
35%
Default. Adjust to test.
20%
10%

Tax

67%
Highly concentratedLong-term
If 30% drop
−$150,000
If 50% drop
−$250,000
If 70% drop
−$350,000

Most fee-only advisors target ≤10% in any single name. You're at 67%.

Estimates only. Not financial advice.

Most sensitive to: Expected market return (±10% on this input swings best-plan wealth by ±$190,508).

Cost of fully de-concentrating

All three plans sell to 0% (no hedge).

Tax
Wealth (3y)$956,485
+$33,417 vs.

Tax
Wealth (3y)$994,174
+$71,106 vs.

Tax
Wealth (3y)$1.04M
+$112,490 vs.

Sensitivity. If your expected position return drops below 19.6%/yr, lump-sum (sell everything today) beats every spread plan above.

Have multiple RSU vest lots? The RSU Lot Order Calculator picks which lots to sell first, and on which dates, to divest at the lowest computed tax.

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Toggle below — chart updates live. Sell buttons show the slice.
Sell over 1 yearSell over 2 yearsSell over 3 yearsCustom
$712,500$815,995$919,489$1,022,984$1,126,478Yr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Tax$200,753
Hedge cost$37,676
Wealth at Y3$1,046,371
Vs. best fixed plan+$10,813

Tech / Software single names hit a 50%+ peak-to-trough drawdown in roughly 1 of every 5 rolling 3-year windows over 2014–2024. Even mega-caps aren’t exempt.

Tax brackets: 2026 · Estimates only — not financial advice.

Estate note. Heirs receive a stepped-up basis at death (§1014), eliminating built-in gain on inherited shares. Older holders who plan to bequeath rather than sell may rationally never de-concentrate.

You sized one position's risk. The beta integrates hedging, sell-down, and tax timing into one optimized plan.

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Related calculators: Protect Your Stock Calculator · RSU Lot Order Calculator · Equity Funding Plan Calculator

About Moderna

Moderna (MRNA) is a public Other company, incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

Equity grants at Moderna typically include restricted stock units (RSUs).

Moderna, Inc. is an American pharmaceutical and biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that focuses on RNA therapeutics, primarily mRNA vaccines. These vaccines use a copy of a molecule called messenger RNA (mRNA) to carry instructions for proteins to produce an immune response. The company's name is derived from the terms "modified", "RNA", and "modern".

Source: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Founded in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 2010 around messenger RNA, the company had no approved product until Spikevax, developed with the National Institutes of Health and authorized in December 2020, produced tens of billions in revenue over two years. That demand collapsed as the pandemic receded, returning the company to heavy research spending against a pipeline of respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, cytomegalovirus, and individualized cancer vaccines with Merck. The platform argument is speed: designing a vaccine from a genetic sequence rather than growing virus.

Sources: modernatx.com · en.wikipedia.org

Equity comp at Moderna

  • RSUs use single-trigger vesting: shares become yours as each portion vests on schedule, and the value is taxed as ordinary income at that point. No IPO or acquisition is required.

Researched 2026-08-17.

OptionsAhoy is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Moderna.

If a meaningful share of your net worth sits in MRNA, concentration risk is the question. This calculator quantifies drawdown impact at 30 / 50 / 70%, and the trade-off between selling down (tax cost now) versus hedging (option premium drag), auto-filled with MRNA's option-implied volatility.

All Moderna tools → · Use the generic Stock Concentration Calculator for any company. Diversifying multiple RSU lots? See the lot-by-lot sell order →

Moderna equity questions

How much MRNA stock is too much?
There is no single threshold, but the larger the share of your net worth in one stock, the more a single bad year can set back your plans. The calculator above quantifies the drawdown impact at 30, 50, and 70 percent for your MRNA position and weighs selling down (which triggers capital-gains tax now) against hedging (which costs option premium).
Does Moderna grant ISOs, NSOs, or RSUs?
Equity compensation at Moderna typically takes the form of restricted stock units (RSUs). Restricted stock units are taxed as ordinary income when they vest.
Do Moderna RSUs use double-trigger vesting?
No. Moderna restricted stock units (RSUs) use single-trigger vesting: each tranche becomes yours as it vests on schedule, taxed as ordinary income at that point, with no liquidity event required.
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